CF - CF Industries Holdings Inc

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs · Data as of latest snapshot
Current Price: $136.45
Intrinsic: $174.09 · 27.6% undervalued
Valuation
Forward P/E 16.28
Trailing P/E 15.17
Intrinsic Value $174.09
Valuation Delta +27.6%
Target Price $113.50
Technicals
Trend uptrend
RSI (14) 70
Rel. Strength 99%
vs SMA20 12.97%
vs SMA50 30.61%
Fundamentals
EPS (TTM) 8.99
ROE 29.62%
Profit Margin 20.54%
EPS Growth 36.90%
💎 Value Momentum Valuation Score: 29/65
Forward P/E
16.3
10/20 pts
EPS Growth (est)
8.38
5/15 pts
ROE
29.62%
10/10 pts
Debt/Equity
0.75
4/10 pts
Target Upside
-17%
0/10 pts
Price Chart
SMA 20
SMA 50
SMA 200
Strategy Analysis by Course
Price Action (PAM)
Price Action Manipulation
7 met · 5 failed · 0 missing
✓
pa-asset-class Eligible asset class for price action. assetClass:equity
+10
✓
pa-market-structure Clear market structure present. trend:uptrend
+20
✓
pa-supply-demand-zone Price at supply/demand zone. atSupplyZone:false | atDemandZone:false | nearKeyLevel:true
+15
✗
pa-liquidity-sweep No liquidity sweep detected. liquiditySweep:false
+15
✗
pa-volume-confirmation Volume not confirming. aboveAverage:false
+10
✗
pa-session-timing Outside high-probability sessions.
+5
✓
pa-close-location Close in upper third - bullish signal. closeLocationValue:77.8%
+10
✗
pa-atr-range Normal range - no manipulation signal. sixBarRangeToAtr:2.18
+5
✓
pa-price-floor Price above $5 threshold. price:136.45
+5
✓
pa-liquidity Sufficient liquidity for institutional trading. avgDollarVolume:541706500.00
+10
✗
pa-rsi-divergence No RSI divergence. rsiDivergence:false
+5
✓
pa-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
DR1 (Down Reversal 1)
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Majority flush to force bottom, bullish EXE closes at/above LP within 4 bars
✓Partial DR1 conditions +10 pts
✓Monitor for confirmation +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
Force Strike Continuation
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Force strike bar formation for trend continuation entry
✓Clear trend +10 pts
✗Volume not confirming yet -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
Force Strike Reversal
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Force strike bar formation for reversal entry
✓At key level +10 pts
✓No RSI divergence yet +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
Sweet Spot Entry
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Entry in sweet spot zone (halfway to low of signal bar)
✓At key zone +10 pts
✓Enter in sweet spot (halfway to signal bar low) +10 pts
✓CLV: 78% +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
Market Structure Shift
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Enter on confirmed break of structure (HH/HL or LH/LL change)
✓Trend present +10 pts
✗Structure shift not yet confirmed in data -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
Daily Reversal (Bullish)
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Close in upper third of range - bullish signal
✓Close location: 78% — upper third +10 pts
✓Bullish daily reversal signal +10 pts
Ready to trade 20/20 pts
Bullish EXE Patterns
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Markup bar, bullish bean, bullish ice cream, bullish first strike
✓Uptrend confirmed +10 pts
✓Bullish close location +10 pts
✓Monitor for markup / bean / ice cream / first strike +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
Key Zone Identified
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Support, resistance, or pivot level clearly defined
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Trend Structure Clear
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Clear higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows pattern
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Options Income
Advanced Options 1
9 met · 1 failed · 10 missing
✓
csp-asset-class Eligible equity underlying. assetClass:equity
+10
✗
csp-options-available No listed options available. available:false
+10
~
csp-open-interest Open interest data unavailable.
+10
~
csp-iv-rank IV rank unavailable.
+15
~
csp-premium-level Net premium data unavailable.
+15
✓
csp-liquidity Underlying/options liquidity is acceptable. avgDollarVolume:541706500.00
+15
✓
wheel-own-the-stock Underlying is acceptable to own on assignment. wouldOwnUnderlying:true
+10
✓
csp-levels-defined Support/resistance anchors exist for strike selection. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+10
✓
csp-cash-budget Cash requirement is set for CSP evaluation. cashRequired:13645.00
+3
✓
csp-trend-context Trend context is acceptable for income strategy. primary:uptrend
+2
~
covered-call-100-shares Share inventory not modeled; assumes external operator position data.
~
covered-call-dte-35-40 Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
~
covered-call-otm-1-2-strikes Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+8
~
covered-call-three-income-streams Live option-chain inputs unavailable. price:136.45 | hasCoveredCallCandidate:false
+4
~
csp-first-otm-put Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+8
~
csp-dte-configurable Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
✓
csp-margin-buying-power-20pct Workbook formula mapped: blocked buying power ~= 20% of secured cash. cashRequired:13645.00 | blockedBuyingPower:2729.00
~
csp-margin-target-70pct-annualized Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
✓
csp-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✓
csp-news-disqualifier No material negative news. hasMaterialNegativeNews:false
-20
High IV Environment
Supporting 0/100 ▼
IV Rank > 50% favorable for selling premium
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Options Liquidity
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Sufficient open interest and tight spreads
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Iron Condor
Advanced Options 2 (IronStriker)
5 met · 2 failed · 5 missing
✓
ic-asset-class Eligible asset class for iron condor. assetClass:equity
+10
✗
ic-options-available Live option-chain inputs unavailable. optionsAvailable:false
+10
✗
ic-range-bound Stock is trending - iron condor less ideal. trend:uptrend
+20
~
ic-iv-elevated IV rank unavailable.
+15
~
ic-open-interest Open interest unavailable.
+10
✓
ic-no-earnings-within-dte No earnings within DTE window. earningsWithinDte:false
+15
✓
ic-support-resistance-defined Support and resistance levels defined for wing placement. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+15
~
ic-dte-30-45 DTE unavailable.
+5
~
ic-delta-selection Short strike delta unavailable.
+5
~
ic-premium-collected Net premium percentage unavailable.
+10
✓
ic-liquidity Institutional-grade liquidity. avgDollarVolume:541706500.00
+10
✓
ic-event-disqualifier No high-impact event within DTE. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-40
Exit Before Earnings
Exit 100/100 ▼
Must exit position before earnings announcement
✓No earnings warning — normal position management +10 pts
Exit signal 10/10 pts
Bounce/Swing
Stock Trading 1 & 2
8 met · 11 failed · 0 missing
✓
bs-asset-class Eligible equity for bounce/swing. assetClass:equity
+5
✓
bounce-trend-context Trend context supports bounce setup. primary:uptrend | sma50Slope:up
+17
✗
bs-setup-present No pullback/consolidation pattern detected. hasConsolidation:false | hasPullback:false
+10
✓
bs-levels-defined Support and resistance are defined. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+10
✓
bs-liquidity Liquidity clears swing-trade threshold. avgDollarVolume:541706500.00
+7
✗
bs-breakout-armed Breakout trigger is not yet armed. breakoutTriggerArmed:false
+7
✗
bs-rsi-band RSI is outside the preferred momentum band. rsi14:69.83
+4
✗
bs-stoch-band Stochastic K(60) is not oversold (need < 30). stochK:59.71 | stochD:57.86
✗
bs-pullback-depth Pullback depth is outside the preferred band. percentFromHigh:137.44
+2
✗
bounce-key-ma-touch No convincing MA touch/pullback evidence. sma20DistancePct:13.0% | sma50DistancePct:30.6% | hasPullback:false
+11
✗
bounce-two-candle-original Two-candle bounce pattern not found. prevBar:[object Object] | lastBar:[object Object]
+11
✗
bounce-inside-bar-variation Inside-bar bounce variation not detected. isInsideBar:false
+7
✗
bounce-through-ma-variation Through-moving-average variation not detected. prevOpen:122.67 | prevClose:126.92 | lastOpen:125.57
+7
✗
bounce-target-rr Stop distance is wide for a clean 1:2 setup. stopDistancePct:12.97
+2
✓
pam-dr-price-floor Price clears PAM floor. price:136.45
✓
pam-dr-execution-close-location Close finished in upper third of range. closeLocationValue:77.8%
✗
pam-dr-swing-range-atr Six-bar swing range does not exceed 4x ATR. sixBarRangeToAtr:2.18
✓
bs-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✓
bs-news-disqualifier No material negative news. hasMaterialNegativeNews:false
-20
High Probability Setup
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Bounce setup with multiple confirmations
✗Multiple bounce confirmations not present -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Value Momentum
Value Momentum Investing
10 met · 8 failed · 2 missing
✓
vm-asset-class Eligible asset class. assetClass:equity
+4
✓
vm-50-150-uptrend-confirmation Intermediate trend supports VM. priceAbove50Sma:true | sma50Slope:up
+20
✓
vm-liquidity Liquidity clears threshold. avgDollarVolume:541706500.00
+13
✓
vm-200ma-uptrend-confirmation Price is above the 200 SMA. sma200DistancePct:50.2%
+9
✓
vm-rs-rank Relative strength is supportive. rank:99.00
+9
✓
vm-forward-pe Forward valuation is inside the ceiling. forwardPe:16.28
+9
✓
vm-business-quality-gate Quality proxies are acceptable. roe:29.6% | margin:20.5% | revGrowth:19.3%
+5
✗
vm-buy-near-moving-average Price is extended from preferred moving averages. sma20DistancePct:13.0% | sma50DistancePct:30.6%
+7
✗
vm-earnings-growth Earnings growth is below 10% threshold. earningsGrowthYoY:8.4%
+4
✗
vm-pullback-entry Pullback is outside the preferred entry band. percentFromHigh:137.44
+3
~
vm-peg-below-1-5 PEG unavailable.
+5
~
vm-peg-below-1-0-best PEG unavailable.
+4
✓
vm-dcf-supported DCF IV $161.11 > price $136.45 (15% margin of safety). intrinsicValuePerShare:161.11 | currentPrice:136.45 | marginOfSafety:15.30
+4
✗
vm-revenue-consistency Revenue inconsistent: only 2/4 periods show growth. growingPeriods:2.00 | totalPeriods:4.00 | latestRevenue:7084000000.00
+2
✓
vm-event-safety No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
+2
✓
vm-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✗
vm-avoid-buying-extended Price looks extended above near-term mean. sma20DistancePct:13.0%
-30
✗
vm-discount-context-macro No clear macro discount context detected. rsRank:99.00 | salesQQPct:22.8% | epsNext5YPct:-5.1%
✗
vm-discount-context-cyclical No cyclical discount pattern detected. salesQQPct:22.8% | epsQQPct:36.9% | epsNext5YPct:-5.1%
✗
vm-structural-decline Structural decline risk — analysts forecast negative 5-year EPS growth (-5.1%). Eroding competitive position, not a cyclical dip. epsNext5YPct:-5.1% | revenueConsistency:50.0% | revPeriodsAvailable:5.00
-20
Value Entry
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Buy undervalued stock with PEG < 1.0
✓Uptrend confirmed +10 pts
✓PEG data unavailable +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
GARP Entry
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Growth at Reasonable Price - PEG 1.0-1.5
✓Uptrend confirmed +10 pts
✓PEG data unavailable +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
New Uptrend Entry
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Buy at start of new uptrend
✓Uptrend structure confirmed +10 pts
✓Above both 50 and 200 SMA +10 pts
✓SMA50 slope rising +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
Dividend Value
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Dividend payer with uptrend and strong ROE
✓Dividend: 2.0% +10 pts
✓Uptrend confirmed +10 pts
✓ROE: 29.6% +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
ETF Diversified
Supporting 100/100 ▼
ETF for no company-specific risk
✓Equity — ETF diversified entry N/A +10 pts
Supporting criteria 10/10 pts
Trend Confirmation
Supporting 100/100 ▼
Higher highs/lows uptrend established
✓Established HH/HL uptrend +10 pts
✓Above 200 SMA +10 pts
✓RS rank: 99 +10 pts
Supporting criteria 30/30 pts
Exit Signal (Downtrend)
Exit 100/100 ▼
Never buy in downtrend - course rule
✓No downtrend — exit signal N/A +10 pts
Exit signal 10/10 pts

Financial Trends

All numbers are in USD millions, except per-share data, ratios, and percentages.

Revenue & Profitability
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet Strength
Margins