ERIE - Erie Indemnity Co

Financial · Insurance Brokers · Data as of latest snapshot
Current Price: $240.87
Intrinsic: $192.34 · 20.1% overvalued
Valuation
Trailing P/E 22.69
Intrinsic Value $192.34
Valuation Delta -20.1%
Target Price $115.00
Technicals
Trend downtrend
RSI (14) 38
Rel. Strength 25%
vs SMA20 -3.63%
vs SMA50 -9.69%
Fundamentals
EPS (TTM) 10.62
ROE 26.19%
Profit Margin 13.75%
EPS Growth -58.31%
💎 Value Momentum Valuation Score: 20/45
EPS Growth (est)
-
0/15 pts
ROE
26.19%
10/10 pts
Debt/Equity
0.00
10/10 pts
Target Upside
-52%
0/10 pts
Price Chart
SMA 20
SMA 50
SMA 200
Strategy Analysis by Course
Price Action (PAM)
Price Action Manipulation
7 met · 5 failed · 0 missing
✓
pa-asset-class Eligible asset class for price action. assetClass:equity
+10
✓
pa-market-structure Clear market structure present. trend:downtrend
+20
✓
pa-supply-demand-zone Price at supply/demand zone. atSupplyZone:false | atDemandZone:false | nearKeyLevel:true
+15
✗
pa-liquidity-sweep No liquidity sweep detected. liquiditySweep:false
+15
✗
pa-volume-confirmation Volume not confirming. aboveAverage:false
+10
✗
pa-session-timing Outside high-probability sessions.
+5
✓
pa-close-location Close in lower third - bearish signal. closeLocationValue:26.9%
+10
✗
pa-atr-range Normal range - no manipulation signal. sixBarRangeToAtr:2.04
+5
✓
pa-price-floor Price above $5 threshold. price:240.87
+5
✓
pa-liquidity Sufficient liquidity for institutional trading. avgDollarVolume:53328618.00
+10
✗
pa-rsi-divergence No RSI divergence. rsiDivergence:false
+5
✓
pa-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
UR1 (Up Reversal 1)
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Majority flush to force top, bearish EXE closes at/below LP within 4 bars
✓Partial UR1 conditions +10 pts
✓Monitor for confirmation +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
Force Strike Continuation
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Force strike bar formation for trend continuation entry
✓Clear trend +10 pts
✗Volume not confirming yet -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
Force Strike Reversal
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Force strike bar formation for reversal entry
✓At key level +10 pts
✓No RSI divergence yet +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
Sweet Spot Entry
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Entry in sweet spot zone (halfway to low of signal bar)
✓At key zone +10 pts
✓Enter in sweet spot (halfway to signal bar low) +10 pts
✓CLV: 27% +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
Supply Zone Reversal
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Short at supply zone after liquidity grab
✓Downtrend + near resistance +10 pts
✗Supply zone not flagged explicitly -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
Market Structure Shift
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Enter on confirmed break of structure (HH/HL or LH/LL change)
✓Trend present +10 pts
✗Structure shift not yet confirmed in data -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
Daily Reversal (Bearish)
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Close in lower third of range - bearish signal
✓Close location: 27% — lower third +10 pts
✓Bearish daily reversal signal +10 pts
Ready to trade 20/20 pts
Bearish EXE Patterns
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Markdown bar, bearish bean, bearish ice cream, bearish first strike
✓Downtrend confirmed +10 pts
✓Bearish close location +10 pts
✓Monitor for markdown / bean / ice cream / first strike +10 pts
Ready to trade 30/30 pts
Key Zone Identified
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Support, resistance, or pivot level clearly defined
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Trend Structure Clear
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Clear higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows pattern
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Iron Condor
Advanced Options 2 (IronStriker)
5 met · 2 failed · 5 missing
✓
ic-asset-class Eligible asset class for iron condor. assetClass:equity
+10
✗
ic-options-available Live option-chain inputs unavailable. optionsAvailable:false
+10
✗
ic-range-bound Stock is trending - iron condor less ideal. trend:downtrend
+20
~
ic-iv-elevated IV rank unavailable.
+15
~
ic-open-interest Open interest unavailable.
+10
✓
ic-no-earnings-within-dte No earnings within DTE window. earningsWithinDte:false
+15
✓
ic-support-resistance-defined Support and resistance levels defined for wing placement. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+15
~
ic-dte-30-45 DTE unavailable.
+5
~
ic-delta-selection Short strike delta unavailable.
+5
~
ic-premium-collected Net premium percentage unavailable.
+10
✓
ic-liquidity Institutional-grade liquidity. avgDollarVolume:53328618.00
+10
✓
ic-event-disqualifier No high-impact event within DTE. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-40
Exit Before Earnings
Exit 100/100 ▼
Must exit position before earnings announcement
✓No earnings warning — normal position management +10 pts
Exit signal 10/10 pts
Options Income
Advanced Options 1
8 met · 2 failed · 10 missing
✓
csp-asset-class Eligible equity underlying. assetClass:equity
+10
✗
csp-options-available No listed options available. available:false
+10
~
csp-open-interest Open interest data unavailable.
+10
~
csp-iv-rank IV rank unavailable.
+15
~
csp-premium-level Net premium data unavailable.
+15
✓
csp-liquidity Underlying/options liquidity is acceptable. avgDollarVolume:53328618.00
+15
✓
wheel-own-the-stock Underlying is acceptable to own on assignment. wouldOwnUnderlying:true
+10
✓
csp-levels-defined Support/resistance anchors exist for strike selection. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+10
✓
csp-cash-budget Cash requirement is set for CSP evaluation. cashRequired:24087.00
+3
✗
csp-trend-context Trend context is not favorable for covered calls/CSPs. primary:downtrend
+2
~
covered-call-100-shares Share inventory not modeled; assumes external operator position data.
~
covered-call-dte-35-40 Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
~
covered-call-otm-1-2-strikes Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+8
~
covered-call-three-income-streams Live option-chain inputs unavailable. price:240.87 | hasCoveredCallCandidate:false
+4
~
csp-first-otm-put Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+8
~
csp-dte-configurable Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
✓
csp-margin-buying-power-20pct Workbook formula mapped: blocked buying power ~= 20% of secured cash. cashRequired:24087.00 | blockedBuyingPower:4817.40
~
csp-margin-target-70pct-annualized Live option-chain inputs unavailable.
+5
✓
csp-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✓
csp-news-disqualifier No material negative news. hasMaterialNegativeNews:false
-20
High IV Environment
Supporting 0/100 ▼
IV Rank > 50% favorable for selling premium
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Options Liquidity
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Sufficient open interest and tight spreads
✗Sub-strategy qualifier not implemented -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Bounce/Swing
Stock Trading 1 & 2
10 met · 9 failed · 0 missing
✓
bs-asset-class Eligible equity for bounce/swing. assetClass:equity
+5
✗
bounce-trend-context Trend context does not support bounce setup. primary:downtrend | sma50Slope:down
+17
✓
bs-setup-present Pullback/consolidation pattern exists. hasConsolidation:true | hasPullback:false
+10
✓
bs-levels-defined Support and resistance are defined. supportDefined:true | resistanceDefined:true
+10
✓
bs-liquidity Liquidity clears swing-trade threshold. avgDollarVolume:53328618.00
+7
✗
bs-breakout-armed Breakout trigger is not yet armed. breakoutTriggerArmed:false
+7
✗
bs-rsi-band RSI is outside the preferred momentum band. rsi14:38.09
+4
✓
bs-stoch-band Stochastic K(20) is oversold — bounce entry zone. stochK:20.44 | stochD:20.02
✗
bs-pullback-depth Pullback depth is outside the preferred band. percentFromHigh:434.00
+2
✓
bounce-key-ma-touch Pullback is near relevant moving average. sma20DistancePct:-3.6% | sma50DistancePct:-9.7% | hasPullback:false
+11
✗
bounce-two-candle-original Two-candle bounce pattern not found. prevBar:[object Object] | lastBar:[object Object]
+11
✗
bounce-inside-bar-variation Inside-bar bounce variation not detected. isInsideBar:false
+7
✗
bounce-through-ma-variation Through-moving-average variation not detected. prevOpen:245.69 | prevClose:240.53 | lastOpen:241.63
+7
✓
bounce-target-rr Stop distance is compatible with 1:2 planning. stopDistancePct:3.63
+2
✓
pam-dr-price-floor Price clears PAM floor. price:240.87
✗
pam-dr-execution-close-location Close did not finish in upper third of range. closeLocationValue:26.9%
✗
pam-dr-swing-range-atr Six-bar swing range does not exceed 4x ATR. sixBarRangeToAtr:2.04
✓
bs-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✓
bs-news-disqualifier No material negative news. hasMaterialNegativeNews:false
-20
Bollinger Mean Reversion (BMR)
Actionable 100/100 ▼
Counter-trend buy oversold at lower Bollinger Band with divergence
✓RSI oversold +10 pts
✓Pullback depth marginal for BMR +10 pts
Monitor for confirmation 20/20 pts
High Probability Setup
Supporting 100/100 ▼
Bounce setup with multiple confirmations
✓MA touch +10 pts
✓Setup present +10 pts
Supporting criteria 20/20 pts
Value Momentum
Value Momentum Investing
10 met · 5 failed · 5 missing
✓
vm-asset-class Eligible asset class. assetClass:equity
+4
✗
vm-50-150-uptrend-confirmation Intermediate trend does not confirm. priceAbove50Sma:false | sma50Slope:down
+20
✓
vm-liquidity Liquidity clears threshold. avgDollarVolume:53328618.00
+13
✗
vm-200ma-uptrend-confirmation Price is below the 200 SMA. sma200DistancePct:-21.9%
+9
✗
vm-rs-rank Relative strength is weak. rank:25.00
+9
~
vm-forward-pe Forward P/E unavailable.
+9
✓
vm-business-quality-gate Quality proxies are acceptable. roe:26.2% | margin:13.8% | revGrowth:7.2%
+5
✓
vm-buy-near-moving-average Price is near a relevant moving average. sma20DistancePct:-3.6% | sma50DistancePct:-9.7%
+7
~
vm-earnings-growth Earnings growth unavailable.
+4
✗
vm-pullback-entry Pullback is outside the preferred entry band. percentFromHigh:434.00
+3
~
vm-peg-below-1-5 PEG unavailable.
+5
~
vm-peg-below-1-0-best PEG unavailable.
+4
✗
vm-dcf-supported DCF IV $141.98 < price $240.87 — overvalued by DCF. intrinsicValuePerShare:141.98 | currentPrice:240.87 | marginOfSafety:-69.60
+4
✓
vm-revenue-consistency Revenue grew in 4/4 consecutive periods. growingPeriods:4.00 | totalPeriods:4.00 | latestRevenue:4067258000.00
+2
✓
vm-event-safety No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
+2
✓
vm-event-disqualifier No high-impact event blocker. hasHighImpactEvent:false
-30
✓
vm-avoid-buying-extended Price is not excessively extended. sma20DistancePct:-3.6%
-30
✓
vm-discount-context-macro Macro/sector headwind likely — company fundamentals intact despite price weakness. Not a red flag. rsRank:25.00 | salesQQPct:2.8% | profitMarginPct:13.8%
~
vm-discount-context-cyclical 5-year EPS growth estimate unavailable. salesQQ:2.8% | epsQQ:-58.3%
✓
vm-structural-decline No structural decline signal — long-term growth outlook intact. revenueConsistency:1.00 | revPeriodsAvailable:5.00
-20
Dividend Value
Actionable 50/100 ▼
Dividend payer with uptrend and strong ROE
✓Dividend: 5.6% +10 pts
✗Not in uptrend — wait -5 pts
Monitor for confirmation 10/20 pts
ETF Diversified
Supporting 100/100 ▼
ETF for no company-specific risk
✓Equity — ETF diversified entry N/A +10 pts
Supporting criteria 10/10 pts
Trend Confirmation
Supporting 0/100 ▼
Higher highs/lows uptrend established
✗Not in established uptrend above 200 SMA -5 pts
Supporting criteria 0/10 pts
Exit Signal (Downtrend)
Exit 50/100 ▼
Never buy in downtrend - course rule
✗⚠ DOWNTREND — do not buy -5 pts
✓Wait for trend reversal +10 pts
Exit signal 10/20 pts

Financial Trends

All numbers are in USD millions, except per-share data, ratios, and percentages.

Revenue & Profitability
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet Strength
Margins